General equilibrium with trade balance and real interest rate parity

This paper demonstrates, in the context of a two-sector OLG neoclassical growth model, conditions under which international trade in consumption goods alone may be sufficient for the equalization of real returns to physical capital across countries; that is, under which commodity arbitrage is sufficient for real interest rate parity (RIRP). This role for repeated commodity arbitrage is established via a dynamic extension of the factor price equalization (FPE) theorem which is valid at all dates comprising the equilibrium path as well as its steady state. The results are at odds with the conventional view regarding RIRP which arises from open one-sector growth models, in which case steady state trade balance and RIRP are irreconcilable, and are also a contradiction to frequent assertions of lon-run specialization in two-sector frameworks. An equilibrium path for an integrated world economy yields an endogenous, time-variant cone of diversification which implies sufficient conditions for the dynamic paths of a cross-section of economies to exhibit FPE, and hence RIRP with trade balance, at all points in time. These conditions require that the savings rates and initial capital-labor ratios of individual countries do not deviate too significantly from world averages, and that both sectors absorb capital easily. The first of these requirements is sufficient to establish steady state FPE and RIRP in the general specification. The first two requirements are sufficient for the entire equilibrium path to be characterized by FPE and RIRP in a log-linear example. Received: September 22, 1998; revised version: February 10, 2000     

Loss Given Default,Loan Seasoning and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans at Failed Banks

Commercial real estate (CRE) loan losses are a recurring contributor to bank failures and financial instability, yet they are not well understood. We examine a unique and proprietary data set of CRE loan defaults at banks that failed and were resolved by the FDIC after the 2008 financial crisis. We build upon an existing literature relating stochastic collateral values to loss given default (LGD). Consistent with model predictions, we show that CRE loans defaulting sooner after origination are more sensitive to declining economic conditions and exhibit LGDs that are more severe. These results are robust to a number of factors, including the declining balance of the loan over time. Our findings point to an inherent fragility associated with high CRE loan growth, even without necessarily a deterioration in lending standards, due to the changing composition of CRE loan seasoning in the industry. This reflects an unexplored risk in the literature concerning rapid and cyclical expansions in CRE credit.

     

A hidden risk of auditor industry specialization: evidence from the financial crisis

Review of Accounting Studies - We identify situations in which auditor industry specialization could be detrimental for audit outcomes. We predict that during periods of heightened...     

The Price of Being Foreign: Stock Market Penalties Associated with Accounting Irregularities for U.S.-Listed Foreign Firms

We examine the stock market consequences of disclosing accounting irregularities for U.S.-listed foreign firms. After controlling for the severity of the irregularity and other firm characteristics, we find that foreign firms experience significantly more negative short-window stock market reactions following irregularity announcements than do U.S. firms. Moreover, for a subsample of 64 irregularities of foreign firms that are listed on both a U.S. and home country stock exchange, we find evidence that restating firms' U.S. investors react more negatively to the same irregularity than their home country investors. This differential market reaction appears related to firm-specific information risks that are greater for foreign firms than U.S. firms. Collectively, consistent with the reputational bonding hypothesis in prior literature, our results suggest that accounting irregularities cause U.S. investors to reassess the information risk associated with foreign firms.     

Poverty analysis in the lowlands of Papua New Guinea underscores climate vulnerability and need for income flexibility*

A severe El Niño event in 2015/16 decimated an important share of Papua New Guinea's (PNG) local crop production, leaving 10 per cent of the population with significant food shortages. Lack of recent socio‐economic data and analysis of the country's rural population impeded efforts to plan and mitigate the ensuing food crisis. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in Papua New Guinea in nearly a decade, and a renewed effort to inform rural production, consumption and livelihood patterns in some of the country's most remote, lowland areas. We designed a rural household survey that collected detailed consumption and expenditure data to explore poverty prevalence and correlates of per capita household expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the sampled individuals live in households with total per capita expenditures below the poverty line. Climate shocks have significant and possibly long‐term consequences for household welfare. Households that experienced a drought in the last 5 years are associated with significantly lower per capita expenditures. Labour diversification, via migration, is associated with greater welfare. Households with at least one migrant member are associated with 13 per cent greater per capita expenditure.     

Does distance matter for institutional delivery in rural India?

This article estimates the causal effect of distance to health facility on in-facility birth in rural India, taking into account the endogenous placement of the health facility. We find that women living farther away from the health facilities are less likely to give birth at a health facility. Each additional kilometre from the nearest health facility is associated with a 4.4% decline in the probability of in-facility birth. Policy simulation results indicate that providing access to a health facility within 5 km would increase institutional delivery by 10%. Overall, our findings confirm that distance is an important barrier to in-facility births in rural India.     

High and low performers' intention to leave: examining the relationship with motivation and commitment

By studying intrinsic sources of motivation, the current research extends theory development in the motivation and commitment field to examine when employees of varying performance intend to leave their organisation. Based upon a nation-wide study of retail banking employees in one of the largest Australian financial institutions (N = 784), we found that for high-performing employees with either a promotion focus or affective commitment, there was significantly reduced intention to leave. The relationship between affective commitment and intention to leave was not significantly strengthened by increases in promotion focus. Implications for development of theories focused on intrinsic sources of motivation and commitment as well as the practical implications for talent retention are discussed.     

A case study investigating the impact of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games on participation in two non-traditional English sports,Judo and Fencing

The hosting of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games (LOPG) brought with it detailed legacy plans aiming to ‘Inspire a Generation’. The idea that hosting a sports mega-event will encourage the host population to engage in more physical activity is commonly used by governments to justify the large investments they make. The aim of this research paper was to investigate the impact that hosting the 2012 Games had on grass-root sports participation within the host nation. This paper focuses on two non-traditional English sports, Fencing and Judo and investigated the changes in mass sports participation. The membership rate analysis of our sample highlighted an overall increase in participation between 2007 and 2013, in both Judo and Fencing. The data gathered from the interviews with the head office staff at the National Governing Bodies (NGBs) and local club coaches suggested that the grass-root participation programmes were the most effective way of increasing participation, rather than the reliance, solely on the inspiration effect from hosting the LOPG itself. The study highlighted the importance of strengthening communication between local voluntary clubs and the NGB, to ensure sports could promote themselves and capitalise on this global sporting phenomenon, which provided unprecedented media coverage and opportunities for these non-traditional sports. This case study provides initial results relating to the effect that a major international multi-sport event can have in the development of non-traditional sports in the host population, in terms of membership variations, participation programmes and organisational dynamics.